Wednesday, May 31, 2006
INVASION USA
Study: 1 million sex crimes by illegals
Researcher estimates more than 100 offenders crossing border daily
Posted: May 31, 2006
1:00 a.m. Eastern
© 2006 WorldNetDaily.com
Deborah Schurman-Kauflin in CNN interview
Based on a one-year in-depth study, a researcher estimates there are
about 240,000 illegal immigrant sex offenders in the United States who
have had an average of four victims each.
Deborah Schurman-Kauflin of the Violent Crimes Institute in Atlanta
analyzed 1,500 cases from January 1999 through April 2006 that included
serial rapes, serial murders, sexual homicides and child molestation
committed by illegal immigrants.
She found that while the offenders were located in 36 states, most were
in states with the highest numbers of illegal immigrants. California had
the most offenders, followed by Texas, Arizona, New Jersey, New York and
Florida.
Schurman-Kauflin concluded that, based on a figure of 12 million illegal
immigrants and the fact that more of this population is male than
average, sex offenders among illegals make up a higher percentage than
offenders in the general population.
She arrives at the figure of 240,000 offenders – a conservative
estimate, she says – through public records showing about 2 percent of
illegals apprehended are sex offenders.
"This translates to 93 sex offenders and 12 serial sexual offenders
coming across U.S. borders illegally per day," she says.
She points out the 1,500 offenders in her study had a total of 5,999
victims, and each sex offender averaged four victims.
"This places the estimate for victimization numbers around 960,000 for
the 88 months examined in this study," she declares.
Schurman-Kauflin breaks down the 1,500 cases reviewed this way:
* 525, or 35 percent, were child molestations
* 358, or 24 percent, were rapes
* 617, or 41 percent, were sexual homicides and serial murders
Of the child molestations, 47 percent of the victims were Hispanic, 36
percent Caucasian, 8 percent Asian, 6 percent African American and 3
percent other nationalities.
In 82 percent of the cases, she noted, the victims were known to their
attackers.
"In those instances, the illegal immigrants typically gained access to
the victims after having worked as a day laborer at or near the victims'
homes," she says. "Victims ranged in age from 1 year old to 13 years
old, with the average age being 6."
In her examination of the sex-related homicides, Schurman-Kauflin found
the most common method was for an offender to break into a residence and
ambush his victims.
Not only were victims raped, she said, but some – 6 percent – were
mutilated.
"The crime scenes were very bloody, expressing intense, angry
perpetrator personalities," she said. "Specifically, most victims were
blitzed, rendered incapable of fighting back, and then raped and
murdered. The most common method of killing was bludgeoning, followed by
stabbing."
She found it especially disturbing that in 22 percent of all sex crimes
committed by illegal immigrants, victims with physical and mental
disabilities were targeted.
The highest number of sex offenders, according to the study, came from
Mexico. El Salvador was the original home to the next highest number.
Other countries of origin included Brazil, China, Ecuador, Guatemala,
Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Puerto Rico, Russia, and Vietnam.
Nearly 63 percent of the offenders had been deported on another offense
prior to the sex crime, the study showed. There was an average of three
years of committing crimes such as DUI, assault or drug related offenses
prior to being apprehended for a sexual offense.
In 81 percent of cases, offenders were drinking or using drugs prior to
offending. Rapists and killers were more likely to use alcohol and drugs
consistently than child molesters.
Only about 25 percent of offenders were found to have been stable within
a community. In 31 percent of the crimes, the offenders entered into the
communities where they offended within two months of the commission of
their sex offenses.
But many, 79 percent, had been in the U.S. for more than one year before
being arrested for a sex crime. They typically were known to the
criminal justice system for prior, less serious offenses before they
molested, raped or murdered, the study said.
Schurman-Kauflin concludes illegal immigrants gradually commit worse
crimes and are continually released back into society or deported.
"Those who were deported simply returned illegally again," she says.
She points out that only 2 percent of the offenders in her study had no
history of criminal behavior, beyond crossing the border illegally.
"There is a clear pattern of criminal escalation," she said.
pomponiox@hotmail.com - 31 May 2006 19:52 GMT
> Wednesday, May 31, 2006
> INVASION USA
[quoted text clipped - 9 lines]
> about 240,000 illegal immigrant sex offenders in the United States who
> have had an average of four victims each.
<snipo>
Since you rednecks keep posting this I have to keep discrediting it.
The study has several logical fallacies. (1) The author took data from
federal databases ("ICE and public records"). Of those that had a rap
sheet, 2% had some sort of sexual molestation charge. Fine. But what
percentage of the illegals would have ANY rap sheet? (2) Her using 12
mil as the total amount is flawed. Approximately half of these
overstay their visa. They do not fit the profile of the illiterate
manual worker she describes later. 'Murrican consuls overseas do not
usually give tourist or business visas to illiterate manual workers.
(3) These molesters did not all come in at the same time. One has to
account for that to calculate the daily flow in. It would have been
good had she broken down their arrival times. Based on (1), ASSUME
that 25% of the illegals have a federal rap sheet. I think that would
be a high figure and therefore it is conservative. For (2) ASSUME the
real number is 6 mil. Also, ASSUME that 20% are women. (It is assumed
that women are not molesters though apparently for some reason there
has been a rash of extremely good looking women teachers who molest a
dumb kid who then blabs about it! How come I never got assigned any of
those teachers?) For (3) assume they came in uniformly spread over the
six years of her study. Given (1) and (2), then there are 1.2 mil
aliens with federal rap sheets. If 2% are molesters, that comes out to
24K altogether (a tenth of the 240K she claims). Over six years, then
4K per year come in. That works out to 10-11 per day. Admittedly,
this is not an acceptable figure for any society but the numbers are
not as extreme as she makes it out. If one were to believe her, there
would be constant rapes ongoing at the Home Depot parking lots. The
key is assumption (1) where I took 25% (out of the thin air) as the
proportion of the illegals that have some federal rap sheet. For all I
know they are only 5%! On the other hand, since the oo-ess does have
the highest incarceration rates for its citizens in the world (higher I
think that Uncle Joe's gulag in their glory days) then it just might be
higher than 25 since illegals would be more likely to end up in the
klink than regular citizens. To reverse engineer her study, I took
1500 data points with 42 trials (she mentions 36 states, 1500/36~42
trials per state) and I generated a BINOMIAL distribution with
probability of being a molester of 0.02 (per her numbers). The reason
is because either you are a molester or you are not so we are dealing
with Bernoulli trials here. Turns out that 38 to 45% of the states
would have not a single molester in their sample. The median number of
molestation raps was one so that agrees more or less with the prior
data. And yes, the mean does come out to 2% but the distribution is
not normal, though the usual approximation to normality does apply for
large sets. In sum, I think the good doctor's approach is flawed
though a good study could have resulted from all this. Her background
shows that she is generally involved in chasing Hannibal Lecter types,
so all the more power to her, but it does not mean she knows her stats.
I am no expert but I at least know enough to make a living with them.
Also, I know that Puerto Rico cannot, by definition, provide illegal
aliens since its inhabitants are oo-ess citizens and she includes this
in her sample. The whole study collapses on that flaw alone, I am
afraid.